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EconomiA , 2050
Since the mid 1990s, theories of speculative attacks have argued that fixed exchange rate regimes induce excessive borrowing in foreign currency as an optimal response to implicit guarantees that the government will not devalue the domestic currency. Using data on Brazilian firms before and after the end of the fixed exchange rate regime in 1999, we estimate the relevance of the government guarantees by comparing the changes in foreign debt of two groups of firms: those that hedged their foreign currency debt prior to the exchange rate float and those that did not. Using the difference-in-differences approach, in which firm-specific characteristics are introduced as control variables, we exclude the macroeconomic effects of the change in the exchange rate regime and the possible differences in foreign debt trends of the two groups of firms, thus obtaining an estimate of the impact of the government guarantees on borrowing in foreign currency. The results suggest that the guarantees do not induce excessive borrowing in foreign currency.
O Globo e O Estado de S.Paulo, 12/04/2024
Rogério Ladeira Furquim Werneck.
O Globo e O Estado de S.Paulo, 15/03/2024
Rogério Ladeira Furquim Werneck.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024
Inflation expectations can quickly become unanchored if the central bank undermines its commitment to the inflation target. This paper exploits a sudden change in monetary policy by the Brazilian Central Bank in 2011 and microdata from a daily survey of professional forecasters to establish support for this claim. Reanchoring came only years later, after a regime shift that included a change of government. A simple model with a well-defined concept of (un)anchored inflation expectations makes sense of and offers a structural interpretation of our empirical findings.
Daniel Adib, João Ayres, Silvia Matos, Marco Bonomo, Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Marina Perrupato Mendonça.
Journal of International Money and Finance, v. 142, 2024
The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass level disaggretion of the CPI over 1990-2021, and compares the properties of this measure to those of standard core. For quarterly data, we find that the weighted median is less volatile than standard core, more closely related to economic slack, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most countries, it has a lower average level than headline inflation. We therefore also consider a measure of core inflation that eliminates this bias, which is based on the percentile of sectoral inflation rates that matches the sample average of headline CPI inflation.
Larry Ball, Chris Evans, Luca Ricci, Carlos Viana de Carvalho.
O Globo e O Estado de S.Paulo, 01/03/2024
Rogério Ladeira Furquim Werneck.
O Globo e O Estado de S.Paulo, 16/02/2024
Rogério Ladeira Furquim Werneck.
O Globo e O Estado de S.Paulo, 02/02/2024
Rogério Ladeira Furquim Werneck.
31/12/2023
Victor Monteiro Barbosa.
Orientador: Márcio Gold Firmo.
31/12/2023
Victor Hugo Kenji Silva Fujii.
Orientador: Gilberto Oliveira Boaretto.
31/12/2023
Thomas Marinho Bailey.
Orientador: Roberto Geraldo Simonard Santos Filho.
31/12/2023
Renan Holanda Setubal.
Orientador: Maria de Nazareth Maciel.
31/12/2023
Pedro Monteiro de Castro Albuquerque.
Orientador: Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia. Pedro Pessoa de Mendonça Vogt.
31/12/2023
Matheus de Lucas Ribeiro Mota.
Orientador: Márcio Gold Firmo.
31/12/2023
Maria Callou Belchior.
Orientador: Yvan Bécard.
31/12/2023
João Vitor dos Santos Freitas.
Orientador: Napoleão Luiz Costa da Silva.
31/12/2023
David Pinto Medeiros.
Orientador: Iuri Honda Ferreira. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia.
31/12/2023
Daniel Quadra Heizer.
Orientador: Maria Elena Gava Reddo Alves.
