TD n. 432 2001

Marcelo Medeiros, Álvaro Veiga, Carlos E. Pedreira.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/72.935089

The goal of this paper is to test and model nonlinearities in several monthly exchange rates time series. We apply two different nonlinear alternatives, namely: the artificial neural-network time series model estimated with Bayesian regularization; and a flexible smooth transition specification, called the neuro-coefficient smooth transition autoregression. The linearity test rejects the null hypothesis of linearity in 10 out of 14 series. We compare, using different measures, the forecasting performance of the nonlinear specifications with the linear autoregression and the random walk models

Publicado em Neural Networks, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:12 ,  Issue: 4 )