Folha de S.Paulo - = Gustavo Franco: Cria=E7=E3o de riqueza

From: Subject: =?Windows-1252?Q?Folha_de_S.Paulo_-_Gustavo_Franco:_Cria=E7=E3o_de_riquez?= =?Windows-1252?Q?a_-_21/06/2008?= Date: Sat, 21 Jun 2008 13:30:27 -0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C8D3A2.F7F57340" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3198 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C8D3A2.F7F57340 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/fz2106200806.htm Folha de S.Paulo - = Gustavo Franco: Cria=E7=E3o de riqueza - 21/06/2008

<= FONT=20 size=3D1>
S=E3o Paulo, s=E1bado, 21 de junho de 2008=20

Texto = Anterior | Pr=F3x= imo=20 Texto | =CDndi= ce=20

GUSTAVO=20 FRANCO

Cria=E7=E3o de riqueza =

NO SEGUNDO semestre de 1993, quem quer que apresentasse um = cheque de=20 US$ 80 bilh=F5es teria comprado todas as empresas listadas na = Bovespa,=20 incluindo Petrobras, Telebr=E1s, e Vale.
Todas.
Quinze = anos depois,=20 este mesmo cheque teria de ser quase vinte vezes maior, de US$ 1,6 = trilh=E3o; e o n=FAmero de empresas abertas =E9 menor, cerca de = 400, sendo que=20 exatas cem empresas est=E3o listadas no Novo Mercado.
A = compara=E7=E3o de=20 valores em d=F3lares envolve algum exagero, mas f=E1cil de = corrigir. O PIB em=20 1993 foi de US$ 429 bilh=F5es, e, em 2007, atingiu US$ 1,3 = trilh=E3o. Assim=20 sendo, a totalidade das companhias abertas brasileiras valia cerca = do=20 equivalente a 18% do PIB em 1993, e passou a valer 108% do PIB ao = final de=20 2007.
S=E3o n=FAmeros impressionantes, cujo significado deve = ser=20 apreciado.
O leitor que acompanhou o processo de = privatiza=E7=E3o,=20 torcendo contra ou a favor, aprendeu que o valor de uma empresa = =E9 dado=20 pelo valor presente do fluxo futuro de rendimentos.
A = express=E3o "valor=20 presente" =E9 chave: significa o "desconto" que damos a um = rendimento futuro=20 pelo fato de que acontece depois, e n=E3o agora. Uma empresa pode = valer mais=20 por que acreditamos que o seu lucro ser=E1 maior no futuro, ou por = que o=20 "desconto" sobre os seus resultados futuros ser=E1 menor. =
Parece=20 pac=EDfico que este segundo elemento, relacionado ao "pre=E7o do = amanh=E3", para=20 usar a express=E3o de Eduardo Gianetti, foi o grande impulso para = o processo=20 de cria=E7=E3o de valor nos =FAltimos 15 anos. Esta amplia=E7=E3o = de horizontes=20 reflete, sem d=FAvida, melhores "fundamentos" para a economia, os = quais, por=20 sua vez, s=E3o resultantes da melhoria brutal que houve na = pol=EDtica=20 econ=F4mica de 1993 a 2008.
No tempo da hiperinfla=E7=E3o, = ningu=E9m=20 considerava rendimentos que ocorriam depois de cinco anos. =
J=E1 em 1997,=20 a Rep=FAblica emitia o seu primeiro b=F4nus de 30 anos pagando = juros em=20 d=F3lares, e, agora nesta semana que passou, o Tesouro cogita = vender no=20 exterior um b=F4nus de 30 anos em reais. Todos os horizontes se = expandiram,=20 tudo o que ocorre no futuro distante passou a ter muito mais = valor.=20
N=E3o h=E1 d=FAvida de que a velha piada sobre o livro de = Stephan Zweig est=E1=20 perdendo o vi=E7o. =C9 verdade que esta nova riqueza n=E3o =E9 = fict=EDcia ou=20 especulativa, pois n=E3o acho que esses adjetivos descrevam = adequadamente o=20 nosso futuro. Mas =E9 certo que a nova riqueza =E9 vol=E1til, por = que depende do=20 futuro, que tem por of=EDcio ser incerto. Ali=E1s, como =E9 o caso = em qualquer=20 parte do mundo.

gh.franco@uol.com.br

GUST= AVO=20 FRANCO escreve aos s=E1bados nesta = coluna.

Texto=20 Anterior: Rio = de=20 Janeiro - Sergio Costa: For=E7as ocultas
Pr=F3ximo Texto: = Frases=

=CDndi= ce=20

Copyright Empresa Folha da Manh=E3 = S/A. Todos os=20 direitos reservados. =C9 proibida a reprodu=E7=E3o do conte=FAdo = desta p=E1gina em=20 qualquer meio de comunica=E7=E3o, eletr=F4nico ou impresso, sem = autoriza=E7=E3o=20 escrita da Folhapress.=20

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