Folha de S.Paulo - = Gustavo Franco: O problema da transfer=EAncia

From: Subject: =?Windows-1252?Q?Folha_de_S.Paulo_-_Gustavo_Franco:_O_problema_da_transfe?= =?Windows-1252?Q?r=EAncia_-_30/08/2008?= Date: Sat, 30 Aug 2008 14:04:58 -0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C90AA9.62EA1AB0" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.5579 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C90AA9.62EA1AB0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/fz3008200806.htm Folha de S.Paulo - = Gustavo Franco: O problema da transfer=EAncia - 30/08/2008

<= FONT=20 size=3D1>
S=E3o Paulo, s=E1bado, 30 de agosto de 2008=20

Texto = Anterior | Pr=F3x= imo=20 Texto | =CDndi= ce=20

GUSTAVO=20 FRANCO

O problema da=20 transfer=EAncia

NEM TODOS os economistas estudaram este assunto, que =E9 um = cl=E1ssico na=20 disciplina, por=E9m um tema meio antigo e dif=EDcil, e que esteve, = por=20 exemplo, no cora=E7=E3o das controv=E9rsias sobre as = repara=E7=F5es de guerra=20 impostas =E0 Alemanha ap=F3s a Primeira Grande Guerra. Muitas = an=E1lises=20 interessantes, de John Maynard Keynes a Paul Samuelson, foram = produzidas=20 sobre o problema.
O problema da transfer=EAncia tem tudo a ver = com o uso=20 do dinheiro do pr=E9-sal. Imagino que as assessorias dos ministros = Mantega e=20 Lob=E3o j=E1 devam saber tudo sobre isso.
Se n=E3o sabem, = estamos em=20 perigo.
Mas, como o leitor nada ouviu sobre as leituras da = comiss=E3o=20 interministerial do pr=E9-sal, vale um dedo de prosa sobre a = natureza deste=20 problema, que se apresenta toda vez que um pa=EDs se v=EA diante = de grandes e=20 inesperadas receitas (ou despesas) em moeda que n=E3o =E9 a = sua.
A Alemanha=20 estava obrigada a pagar repara=E7=F5es aos franceses, mas em moeda = "forte",=20 d=F3lar ou ouro. Tinha um problema fiscal, pois a obriga=E7=E3o = era do governo,=20 e outro de balan=E7o de pagamentos, pois tinham de transformar=20 "marcos-papel", como se dizia, em d=F3lares ou ouro.
Rodar a = guitarra e=20 fabricar marcos para pagar a d=EDvida era fortemente = inflacion=E1rio -e mais=20 ainda quando o governo levava o seu papel=F3rio para o mercado de = c=E2mbio=20 para comprar d=F3lares. A desvaloriza=E7=E3o tinha de ser = monstruosa para que se=20 produzisse um super=E1vit comercial (em d=F3lares) que = "transferisse"=20 repara=E7=F5es que correspondiam a 80% das exporta=E7=F5es = alem=E3s.
Foi uma=20 trag=E9dia.
Se quisermos gastar o dinheiro do pr=E9-sal em = educa=E7=E3o, vamos=20 enfrentar dificuldades parecidas, embora com o sinal contr=E1rio. = Quando se=20 fala em "dinheiro" do pr=E9-sal, vamos ter clareza que falamos de = d=F3lares=20 advindos da exporta=E7=E3o, o que est=E1 um tanto distante do = desejo de gastar=20 em reais, que =E9 assunto fiscal. Como na Alemanha, o problema tem = (ou pode=20 ter) um =E2ngulo fiscal, outro de balan=E7o de pagamentos.
Se = as=20 instala=E7=F5es e equipamentos educacionais fossem importados, e = se as=20 professoras ganhassem em d=F3lares e gastassem toda a sua renda em = importa=E7=F5es adicionais, ent=E3o, e apenas nessas curiosas = circunst=E2ncias,=20 n=E3o haveria efeitos cambiais e problemas de = transfer=EAncia.
Se n=E3o for=20 assim, ent=E3o, fica claro que os reais usados para fazer as = escolas e pagar=20 as professoras ser=E3o produzidos por aumento da d=EDvida = p=FAblica, e para isso=20 n=E3o precisamos de pr=E9-sal.
A li=E7=E3o, que n=E3o =E9 t=E3o = complicada, =E9 que o=20 tesouro s=F3 =E9 um tesouro se o pa=EDs tem uso para ele na moeda = do=20 tesouro.

gh.franco@uol.com.br

=

GUSTAVO FRANCO escreve aos s=E1bados nesta=20 coluna.

Texto Anterior: Rio = de=20 Janeiro - Ruy Castro: Do notici=E1rio
Pr=F3ximo Texto: Frases=

=CDndi= ce=20

Copyright Empresa Folha da Manh=E3 = S/A. Todos os=20 direitos reservados. =C9 proibida a reprodu=E7=E3o do conte=FAdo = desta p=E1gina em=20 qualquer meio de comunica=E7=E3o, eletr=F4nico ou impresso, sem = autoriza=E7=E3o=20 escrita da Folhapress.=20

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