Folha de S.Paulo - = Gustavo Franco: Sobre lagartixas e drag=F5es

From: Subject: =?Windows-1252?Q?Folha_de_S.Paulo_-_Gustavo_Franco:_Sobre_lagartixas_e_dr?= =?Windows-1252?Q?ag=F5es_-_05/07/2008?= Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2008 21:56:27 -0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C8E07C.4E280030" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3198 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C8E07C.4E280030 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/fz0507200806.htm Folha de S.Paulo - = Gustavo Franco: Sobre lagartixas e drag=F5es - 05/07/2008

<= FONT=20 size=3D1>
S=E3o Paulo, s=E1bado, 05 de julho de 2008=20

Texto = Anterior | Pr=F3x= imo=20 Texto | =CDndi= ce=20

GUSTAVO FRANCO=20

Sobre lagartixas e drag=F5es =

AS PESSOAS est=E3o exageradamente assustadas com a = infla=E7=E3o, a come=E7ar=20 pelo ministro da Fazenda, e isso =E9 muito bom.
Felizmente, = exatos 14=20 anos depois do Plano Real, a mem=F3ria do flagelo da = hiperinfla=E7=E3o permanece=20 viva, ainda que emba=E7ada. Sabe-se que foi uma trag=E9dia, mas = apenas os=20 maiores de 32 anos tiveram a chance de ver, j=E1 maiores de idade, = a=20 criatura caminhar sobre territ=F3rio brasileiro. Na verdade, aqui = esteve=20 durante v=E1rios anos, quando foi alimentada por id=E9ias de = economistas=20 heterodoxos, como estes que est=E3o aboletados no Ipea, e tratada = com banhos=20 frios, feiti=E7os e confiscos, =E0s vezes mais danosos que o mal = que a=20 criatura nos causava.
A infla=E7=E3o acumulada em 12 meses = at=E9 junho de=20 1994, medida pelo IPCA, atingiu 6.432,7%. Vale refletir sobre a = grandeza=20 desse n=FAmero. Em junho de 1994, a infla=E7=E3o foi de 50% no = m=EAs, que=20 equivalem a 12.875% anuais, ou cerca de 2% por dia =FAtil. A meta = de=20 infla=E7=E3o para 2007 seria a infla=E7=E3o de um simples fim de = semana, naqueles=20 tempos loucos. Um feriad=E3o j=E1 seria suficiente para estourar a = meta.=20
Mas a criatura desapareceu em julho de 1994. No ano = calend=E1rio de=20 1997, a infla=E7=E3o foi de 5,2%, e em 1998 chegamos a 1,6% para o = ano=20 inteiro, nossa melhor marca. Vida se assentou, especialmente = depois dos=20 sacolejos de 1999, 2002 e 2004, que abriram v=E1rias tumbas, e = expuseram=20 diversos esqueletos que, afinal, n=E3o sa=EDram andando e = devorando as=20 pessoas, como alguns temiam.
Diante da excita=E7=E3o das = =FAltimas semanas=20 em torno da acelera=E7=E3o da infla=E7=E3o de 4,5% anuais para = 6,0% anuais, a=20 primeira impress=E3o, entre os mais velhos, =E9 a de estamos = lidando com=20 lagartixas e n=E3o com dinossauros.
A presun=E7=E3o, talvez = inocente, =E9 de=20 que esses n=E3o s=E3o fabricados a partir daquelas, mas os maiores = de 50 anos=20 sabem que a exposi=E7=E3o prolongada a doses regulares de id=E9ias = econ=F4micas=20 radioativas podem metamorfosear animais fr=E1geis em serpentes, = que depois=20 viram drag=F5es. N=E3o =E9 muito prov=E1vel, =E9 claro, e, por = isso mesmo, o=20 ministro da Fazenda tem raz=E3o em dizer que n=E3o h=E1 motivo = para p=E2nico.=20 Entretanto, esse tipo de desmentido =E9 uma esp=E9cie de = contradi=E7=E3o em=20 termos: se =E9 preciso que o ministro diga algo assim, =E9 por que = h=E1 motivo=20 para p=E2nico.
E o motivo =E9 muito simples: o ministro, e com = ele o=20 governo, n=E3o mostra nenhuma convic=E7=E3o de que o problema da = infla=E7=E3o tem=20 como causa a pol=EDtica fiscal, o mesmo velho problema. Para n=E3o = repetir=20 Milton Friedman sobre refei=E7=F5es gratuitas, vale lembrar = Machado de Assis,=20 no mesmo esp=EDrito: n=E3o se pode ir =E0 Gl=F3ria sem pagar o = bonde.

mailto:gh.franco@uol.com.br

GUSTAVO FRANCO escreve aos s=E1bados nesta=20 coluna.

Texto Anterior: Rio = de=20 Janeiro - Sergio Costa: A porta assassina
Pr=F3ximo Texto: = Frases=

=CDndi= ce=20

Copyright Empresa Folha da Manh=E3 = S/A. Todos os=20 direitos reservados. =C9 proibida a reprodu=E7=E3o do conte=FAdo = desta p=E1gina em=20 qualquer meio de comunica=E7=E3o, eletr=F4nico ou impresso, sem = autoriza=E7=E3o=20 escrita da Folhapress.=20

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