Folha de S.Paulo - = TEND=CANCIAS/DEBATES<br>Aloizio Mercadante: Dizem, ainda

From: Subject: =?Windows-1252?Q?Folha_de_S.Paulo_-_TEND=CANCIAS/DEBATES=3Cbr=3EAloizio_M?= =?Windows-1252?Q?ercadante:_Dizem=2C_ainda_-_06/04/2008?= Date: Sun, 18 May 2008 18:39:06 -0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0011_01C8B916.739D0AF0" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3198 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0011_01C8B916.739D0AF0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/fz0604200808.htm Folha de S.Paulo - = TEND=CANCIAS/DEBATES<br>Aloizio Mercadante: Dizem, ainda - = 06/04/2008 Aloizio Mercadante: Dizem, = ainda"=20 name=3Dtitle>

<= FONT=20 size=3D1>
S=E3o Paulo, domingo, 06 de abril de 2008=20

Texto = Anterior | Pr=F3x= imo=20 Texto | =CDndi= ce=20

TEND=CANCIAS/DEBATES

Dizem, ainda=20

ALOIZIO MERCADANTE

Como explicar que pol=EDticas em tese id=EAnticas = tenham dado=20 resultados t=E3o d=EDspares? Vamos, ent=E3o, =E0 = compara=E7=E3o dos=20 fatos

SEIS ANOS depois, os que diziam = ainda dizem.=20 Antes, diziam o medo do desastre que n=E3o veio.
Agora, = expressam=20 preconceito contra um governo bem-sucedido, cujo presidente, = conforme a=20 =FAltima pesquisa CNI/Ibope, tem a aprova=E7=E3o recorde de 73% da = popula=E7=E3o.=20
O antilulismo nutre-se de sentimentos baixos e fact=F3ides, = n=E3o de=20 fatos. Entretanto, o debate pol=EDtico n=E3o pode ser balizado por = emo=E7=F5es=20 biliosas e pela fuga da realidade. Infelizmente, essa parece ser a = op=E7=E3o=20 atual de alguns cr=EDticos do governo, como o caro l=EDder do PSDB = no Senado,=20 Arthur Virg=EDlio, com quem sempre tive saud=E1vel conviv=EAncia, = mas que=20 escreveu neste jornal me atacando =E0 moda dos neoconservadores=20 ("Tend=EAncias/Debates", 23/3).
Com efeito, ante o = sucesso do=20 atual governo, em vez de reconhecer seus m=E9ritos, esses = cr=EDticos, fugindo=20 da realidade, protagonizam ato de prestidigita=E7=E3o pol=EDtica: = o governo Lula=20 =E9 mera continuidade do governo FHC!
Como explicar que = pol=EDticas em=20 tese id=EAnticas tenham dado resultados t=E3o d=EDspares? Vamos, = ent=E3o, =E0=20 dolorosa (para eles) compara=E7=E3o dos fatos.
Em primeiro = lugar, a=20 estabilidade macroecon=F4mica, totem ciumentamente velado pelo = tucanato.=20 Reconheci no meu artigo ("Diziam", "Tend=EAncias/Debates", = 16/3) que=20 tal estabilidade come=E7ou a ser implantada no Plano Real. Mas = disse que s=F3=20 se consolidou no governo Lula. N=E3o distorci.
O Brasil foi = submetido,=20 no governo anterior, a crises econ=F4micas que, al=E9m de impedir = o=20 crescimento econ=F4mico, afetaram a estabilidade macroecon=F4mica. = Por causa=20 do Lula? N=E3o, por causa do fracasso do governo anterior no = enfrentamento=20 de quest=E3o crucial: a vulnerabilidade externa da economia.
O = populismo=20 cambial do primeiro mandato de FHC provocou grav=EDssimo desajuste = nas=20 contas externas. Assim, a d=EDvida externa l=EDquida, que, em = 1994,=20 representava 17,3% do PIB, pulou para 40,2%, em 2002. Arthur = Virg=EDlio=20 chama isso de "d=EDvida externa equacionada". Foi esse desajuste = que=20 centralizou as cr=EDticas =E0 pol=EDtica econ=F4mica do governo = FHC.
Nem eu=20 nem o PT nos op=FAnhamos =E0 estabilidade monet=E1ria "per se", = mas =E0=20 estabilidade obtida a partir de insustent=E1vel valoriza=E7=E3o do = real, que=20 expunha o pa=EDs =E0s turbul=EAncias internacionais. Nossas = advert=EAncias, por=E9m,=20 foram classificadas como manifesta=E7=F5es de "neobobismo". =
J=E1 no governo=20 Lula, a d=EDvida e a vulnerabilidade externas foram drasticamente = reduzidas.=20 Gra=E7as ao substancial aumento das exporta=E7=F5es, que saltaram = de US$ 60=20 bilh=F5es, em 2002, para US$ 160 bilh=F5es, em 2007, e =E0 forte = mudan=E7a no=20 balan=E7o das transa=E7=F5es correntes, que passou de um d=E9ficit = acumulado de=20 US$ 187 bilh=F5es, no governo anterior, para um super=E1vit de US$ = 47,1=20 bilh=F5es, no atual, superou-se o desequil=EDbrio do setor externo = e a=20 estabilidade se consolidou. N=E3o se obt=EAm tais resultados por = "sorte".=20
O mesmo ocorreu em rela=E7=E3o =E0 fragiliza=E7=E3o das = finan=E7as p=FAblicas. A=20 rela=E7=E3o d=EDvida interna l=EDquida/PIB caiu de 59,6%, em 2002, = para 42,8%, em=20 2007. A infla=E7=E3o, que amea=E7ou sair de controle v=E1rias = vezes no governo=20 passado, se mant=E9m dentro da meta. Mais importante: =E0 = estabilidade soma-se=20 agora o crescimento sustentado: 4,53%, na m=E9dia de 2004-2007, = contra=20 magros 2,3% na era FHC.
Ademais, os gastos do Executivo = federal com=20 pessoal, ao inverso do afirmado pelo senador, ca=EDram de 1,9% do = PIB, em=20 2002, para 1,7%, em 2007.
Na =E1rea social, o governo Lula = diminui as=20 desigualdades. A renda dos 50% mais pobres teve, nos =FAltimos = tr=EAs anos,=20 crescimento de 32% e 17 milh=F5es de brasileiros deixaram a = mis=E9ria. O Bolsa=20 Fam=EDlia, que reduz a evas=E3o escolar, ao contr=E1rio do que diz = o senador, =E9=20 internacionalmente elogiado.
Por=E9m, Arthur Virg=EDlio = refere-se a esses=20 =EAxitos como perda de "foco dos programas sociais da gest=E3o = anterior". O=20 =E1pice da arenga anti-Lula do senador =E9 sua cr=EDtica =E0 = s=F3lida pol=EDtica=20 externa atual. Em seu af=E3 de desqualific=E1-la, ele desqualifica = a ONU.=20
Diverg=EAncias s=E3o normais. Eu tamb=E9m as tenho. = Contrariamente ao que=20 diz o senador, achava e ainda acho que a pol=EDtica de metas de = infla=E7=E3o=20 pode ser administrada de forma menos ortodoxa e mais gradativa, = tal como=20 aconteceu, com =EAxito, em pa=EDses como o Chile. Mas divirjo de = forma=20 racional. Setores da oposi=E7=E3o, ao contr=E1rio, criam clima = emotivo que n=E3o=20 tem refer=EAncia nos fatos.
Espero, contudo, que figuras = importantes=20 como Arthur Virg=EDlio possam fazer madura convers=E3o =E0 = ortodoxia do=20 princ=EDpio da realidade. Terei, ent=E3o, o prazer de saud=E1-lo, = mesmo com seis=20 anos de atraso.

ALOIZIO MERCADANTE , 53, economista e = professor=20 licenciado da PUC-SP (Pontif=EDcia Universidade Cat=F3lica de = S=E3o Paulo) e da=20 Unicamp (Universidade Estadual de Campinas), =E9 senador da = Rep=FAblica pelo=20 PT-SP.

Os artigos publicados com = assinatura=20 n=E3o traduzem a opini=E3o do jornal. Sua publica=E7=E3o obedece = ao prop=F3sito de=20 estimular o debate dos problemas brasileiros e mundiais e de = refletir as=20 diversas tend=EAncias do pensamento contempor=E2neo. debates@uol.com.br

Texto=20 Anterior: Frases=

Pr=F3ximo=20 Texto: John=20 Neschling: Hora de relan=E7ar

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Copyright Empresa Folha da Manh=E3 = S/A. Todos os=20 direitos reservados. =C9 proibida a reprodu=E7=E3o do conte=FAdo = desta p=E1gina em=20 qualquer meio de comunica=E7=E3o, eletr=F4nico ou impresso, sem = autoriza=E7=E3o=20 escrita da Folhapress.=20

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