Estimating the spatial amplification of damage caused by degradation in the Amazon

The Amazon rainforests have been undergoing unprecedented levels of human-induced

disturbances. In addition to local impacts, such changes are likely to cascade following

the eastern–western atmospheric flow generated by trade winds. We propose a model of

spatial and temporal interactions created by this flow to estimate the spread of effects

from local disturbances to downwind locations along atmospheric trajectories. The

spatial component captures cascading effects propagated by neighboring regions, while

the temporal component captures the persistence of local disturbances. Importantly, all

these network effects can be described by a single matrix, acting as a spatial multiplier

that amplifies local forest disturbances. This matrix holds practical implications for

policymakers as they can use it to easily map where the damage of an initial forest

disturbance is amplified and propagated to. We identify regions that are likely to cause

the largest impact throughout the basin and those that are the most vulnerable to shocks

caused by remote deforestation. On average, the presence of cascading effects mediated

by winds in the Amazon doubles the impact of an initial damage. However, there is

heterogeneity in this impact. While damage in some regions does not propagate, in

others, amplification can reach 250%. Since we only account for spillovers mediated

by winds, our multiplier of 2 should be seen as a lower bound