Contando com o voo da galinha
Jornal "O Estado de São Paulo", 11/03/2005
Rogério Werneck.
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Jornal "O Estado de São Paulo", 11/03/2005
Rogério Werneck.
Economics and Politics, v. 17, TD n. 1,
p. 1-35, 2005
This study uses a cross-country panel to examine the determinants of corruption, paying particular attention to political institutions that increase accountability. Even though the theoretical literature has stressed the importance of political institutions in determining corruption, the empirical literature is relatively scarce. Our results confirm the role of political institutions in determining the prevalence of corruption. Democracies, parliamentary systems, political stability, and freedom of press are all associated with lower corruption. Additionally, common results of the previous empirical literature, related to openness and legal tradition, do not hold once political variables are taken into account.
Daniel Lederman , Norman V. Loayza, Rodrigo Reis Soares.
American Economic Review, v. 95, TD n. 1,
p. 277-291, 2005
GDP per capita is usually used to proxy for the quality of life of individuals living in different countries. Welfare is also affected by quantity of life, however, as represented by longevity. This paper incorporates longevity into an overall assessment of the evolution of cross-country inequality and shows that it is quantitatively important. The absence of reduction in cross-country inequality up to the 1990s documented in previous work is in stark contrast to the reduction in inequality after incorporating gains in longevity. Throughout the post-World War II period, health contributed to reduce significantly welfare inequality across countries. This paper derives valuation formulas for infra-marginal changes in longevity and computes a "full" growth rate that incorporates the gains in health experienced by 96 countries for the period between 1960 and 2000. Incorporating longevity gains changes traditional results; countries starting with lower income tended to grow faster than countries starting with higher income. We estimate an average yearly growth in "full income" of 4.1 percent for the poorest 50 percent of countries in 1960, of which 1.7 percentage points are due to health, as opposed to a growth of 2.6 percent for the richest 50 percent of countries, of which only 0.4 percentage points are due to health. Additionally, we decompose changes in life expectancy into changes attributable to 13 broad groups of causes of death and three age groups. We show that mortality from infectious, respiratory, and digestive diseases, congenital, perinatal, and "ill-defined" conditions, mostly concentrated before age 20 and between ages 20 and 50, is responsible for most of the reduction in life expectancy inequality. At the same time, the recent effect of AIDS, together with reductions in mortality after age 50-due to nervous system, senses organs, heart and circulatory diseases-contributed to increase health inequality across countries.
Gary S. Becker , Tomas J. Philipson, Rodrigo Reis Soares.
Jornal "O Estado de São Paulo", 25/02/2005
Rogério Werneck.
Jornal "O Estado de São Paulo", 14/02/2005
Marcelo de Paiva Abreu.
TD n. 501, 01/02/2005
publicado em Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, v.36, n.2, 2006
Silvia Helena M. Franco Starling Luiz Barcellos, Juliano Assunção, Rogério Werneck.
TD n. 500, 01/02/2005
publicado em American Journal of Agricultural Economics, v.89, n.4, novembro 2007
Juliano Assunção, Luiz Henrique Bertolino Braido.
TD n. 499, 01/02/2005
Juliano Assunção, Joana da Costa Martins Monteiro.
TD n. 494, 01/02/2005
Marcelo de Paiva Abreu.
TD n. 498, 01/02/2005
Juliano Assunção, Leandro Siqueira Carvalho.
TD n. 497, 01/02/2005
Juliano Assunção, Humberto Moreira.
TD n. 496, 01/02/2005
Juliano Assunção.
TD n. 495, 01/02/2005
The goal of this paper is to describe a forecasting model for the hourly electricity load in the area covered by an electric utility located in the southeast of Brazil. A different model is constructed for each hour of the day. Each model is based on a decomposition of the daily series of each hour in two components. The first component is purely deterministic and is related to trends, seasonality, and the special days effect. The second is stochastic, and follows a linear autoregressive model. Nonlinear alternatives are also considered in the second step. The multi-step forecasting performance of the proposed methodology is compared with that of a benchmark model, and the results indicate that our proposal is useful for electricity load forecasting in tropical environments
Publicado em International Journal of Forecasting, v. 24, p. 630-644, 2008
Marcelo Medeiros, Lacir J. Soares.
Jornal "O Estado de São Paulo", 31/01/2005
Marcelo de Paiva Abreu.
Jornal "O Estado de São Paulo", 28/01/2005
Rogério Werneck.
Jornal "O Estado de São Paulo", 17/01/2005
Marcelo de Paiva Abreu.