Internal migration and economic shocks: Evidence from droughts in semiarid Brazil

Advisor: Juliano Assunção

Co-advisor: Gustavo Gonzaga

This article studies out-migration responses from Brazilian semiarid population following drought shocks. Migration acts as a coping strategy in poor and rural places as weather shocks exacerbate limited credit and liquidity availability. To find evidence of those mechanisms we compute migration rates at the municipality level starting in 1975 until 2010 using official Census data. Results show that migration rates from the semiarid rise following a drought, especially in the 70s and 80s. Furthermore, we investigate if mobility responses are less pronounced in municipalities where: (i) a larger share of its citizens is eligible to receive rural social security benefits, (ii) have an extended network of bank branches or (iii) built more drought mitigation infrastructure projects