Legalize it? The effects of California's medical marijuana law on violent crime

Advisor: Gabriel Ulyssea

There is a large debate among both scholars and policy makers about the potential effects of drug legalization on crime. On the one hand, proponents of drug criminalization claim that legalization would lead to greater consumption and crime. On the other hand, advocates of drug legalization (e.g. Friedman, 1991) argue that prohibition itself can cause more crime by lowering the marginal cost of violence or diverting police resources away from deterring non-drug crimes. In this paper, we examine one specific drug that corresponds to a large share of the drug consumption: Marijuana. For that, we analyze California's pioneer experience with medical marijuana legalization, which started in 1996. California's experience is particularly interesting because it was close to a de facto total legalization of the drug, including for recreational purposes. We use a synthetic control approach to estimate the impact of marijuana legalization on violent crime. The results indicate a reduction of 13% on violent crime.