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The political economy of fiscal multipliers

27/03/2017

Gustavo Cicchelli de Sá Vieira

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Advisor: Eduardo Zilberman

Examiners: Luciano Vereda Oliveira, Tiago Couto Berriel.

This paper investigates if fiscal fragility influences the magnitude of fiscal multipliers. We define states of fiscal fragility based on the literature on politico-institutional determinants of fiscal deficits. Using quarterly data for 44 countries, we find that fiscal multipliers in fiscally fragile economies are smaller than in economies expected to have greater surpluses. 

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