Can Sterilized FX Purchases under Inflation Targeting Be Expansionary?
27/10/2011
Márcio Garcia, PUC-Rio
Can Sterilized FX Purchases under Inflation Targeting Be Expansionary?
Local: Sala F200
Horário: 17:00 hrs
Contrary to conventional wisdom, sterilized FX purchases under inflation targeting, i.e., those
that keep the interest rate at the level targeted by the central bank, generally increase
aggregate demand. We develop a simple model with a credit channel to argue that FX
purchases, by funding bank credit, end up increasing aggregate and money demand, while
expanding loans and deposits, and reducing the loan interest rate. Therefore, restoring the
interest rate to the level prior to the FX purchase is not sufficient to prevent an expansionary
effect; the new money market equilibrium, at the same interest rate, will entail a larger money
supply, higher output and greater money demand. Recent Brazilian evidence is reviewed,
showing that this effect may be empirically relevant. If this is the case, inflation targeters may
have another reason to be concerned when conducting FX sterilized interventions, besides
their high cost and controversial effectiveness in preventing nominal appreciation. Even if FX
sterilized purchases are effective in preventing nominal appreciation, they generally boost
activity and inflation, thereby appreciating the real exchange rate.