#### What if Brazil Hadn't Floated the Real in 1999?

Brazilian Review of Econometrics, v. 35, TD n. 2, 2015

##### We estimate a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model for the Brazilian economy taking into account the transition from a currency peg to inflation targeting that took place in 1999. The estimated model exhibits quite different dynamic under the two monetary regimes. We use it to the produce counterfactual histories of the transition from one regime to another, given estimated history of structural shocks. Our results suggest that the maintaining the currency peg would have been too costly, as interest rates would have had to remain at extremely high levels for several quarters, and GDP would have collapsed. Accelerating e the pace of nominal exchange rate devaluations after de Asian Crisis would have lead to higher inflation and interest rates, and slightly lower GDP. Finally, the first half of 1998 arguably provided a window of opportunity for a smooth transition between the two monetary regimes.

Carlos Viana de Carvalho, André Dornfeld Vilela .