This paper proposes a novel instrumental variable to estimate the causal impact of law enforcement on deforestation. DETER, a satellite-based system for mapping land cover, is the key tool in Amazon monitoring. It determines the location of recent forest clearings and is used to target enforcement. Because DETER cannot detect land cover patterns beneath clouds, it detects no clearings in covered areas. Results conrm that DETER cloud coverage is systematically correlated with nes, a proxy for the presence of law enforcers. The study explores this exogenous source of variation in the allocation of law enforcers as an instrument for the intensity of enforcement. Stricter law enforcement eectively deterred Amazon deforestation, helping avoid over 22,000 km2 of cleared forest area per sample year. Leakage of criminal activity into neighboring areas does not appear to have occurred. Results are submitted to a series of robustness checks.

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics V 15, P 125-156, 2023

Juliano Assunção, Clarissa Costalonga e Gandour, Romero Cavalcanti Barreto da Rocha.

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20200196