Working Paper Series

Browse the categories to access the content of academic, scientific and opinion publications of the professors and students of the Department of Economics PUC-Rio.

Bye, Bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Deepening: The Anatomy of a Financial Boom

N 594, 01/10/2011

João Manoel Pinho de Mello, Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia.

"Palatable Foreign Control": British money doctors and central banking in South America, 1924-1935

N 597, 01/10/2011

This article is on the activities of British money doctors in South America between the 1890s and the 1930s, hitherto overlooked in the literature. It focuses on Sir Otto Niemeyer’s missions to Brazil and Argentina in the early 1930s compared to his earlier report on New Zealand and Professor Edwin Kemmerer’s report on Chile in the mid-1920s. The impact of their visits on the market evaluation of risk related to bonds floated by the largest South American economies is quantitatively analyzed. Difficulties involved in generalizations about links between policy proposals and market evaluation enhance the interest of studying specific experiences.

Niemeyer’s general proposals to the Brazilian government in mid-1931 advising on a possible return to the gold standard are evaluated. His specific proposals on central banking in New Zealand, Argentina and Brazil are discussed in contrast with Kemmerer’s proposals in Chile. The focus is on the autonomy of central banks, representation of sectoral interests, the role of gold in total foreign exchange reserves, and the exertion of foreign influence though directors, shareholders and permanent experts. Finally, the realism of proposals is evaluated in the context of contemporary economic conditions compared with advice provided by other experts on related issues

Pedro Carvalho Loureiro de Souza, Marcelo de Paiva Abreu.

Do public banks compete with private banks? evidence from concentrated local markets in Brazil

N 551, 01/08/2011

A ser publicado em Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012.

Christiano Arrigoni Coelho, João Manoel Pinho de Mello, Leonardo Rezende.

The use of violence in illegal markets: evidence from mahogany trade in the Brazilian Amazon

N 592, 01/08/2011

Ariaster B. Chimeli, Rodrigo Reis Soares.

Access to justice and entrepreneurship: evidence from Brazil’s Special Civil Tribunals

N 591, 01/08/2011

Guilherme Finkelfarb Lichand, Rodrigo Reis Soares.

Audits or Distortions: The Optimal Scheme to Enforce Self-Employment Income Taxes

N 590, 01/07/2011

Eduardo Zilberman.

Can Sterilized FX Purchases under Inflation Targeting be Expansionary?

N 589, 01/04/2011

Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia.

A Economia da República Velha, 1889-1930

N 588, 01/01/2011

Luiz Aranha Corrêa do Lago, Gustavo Henrique de Barroso Franco.

Assessing the crack hypothesis using data from a crime wave: the case of São Paulo

N 586, 01/12/2010

João Manoel Pinho de Mello.

A deterioração do regime fiscal no segundo mandato de Lula e seus desdobramentos

N 587, 01/12/2010

Rogério Ladeira Furquim Werneck.

A economia brasileira 1930-1964

N 585, 01/11/2010

Marcelo de Paiva Abreu.

A economia brasileira no Império, 1822-1889

N 584, 01/11/2010

Marcelo de Paiva Abreu, Luiz Aranha Corrêa do Lago.

Cost of electricity in Brazil: Effects of 2004 regulatory reform

N 583, 01/10/2010

Monica Barros, Marina Figueira de Mello.

Organization and Information in the Fight against Crime: An Evaluation of the Integration of Police Forces in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

N 582, 01/10/2010

Rodrigo Reis Soares.

Welfare Costs of Crime and Common Violence: A Critical Review

N 581, 01/10/2010

Rodrigo Reis Soares.

Asymmetries, breaks, and long-range dependence: An estimation framework for daily realized volatility

N 578, 01/10/2010

We study the simultaneous occurrence of long memory and nonlinear effects, such as parameter changes and threshold effects, in time series models and apply our modeling framework to daily realized measures of integrated variance. Asymptotic theory for parameter estimation is developed and two model building procedures are proposed. The methodology is applied to stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the period 2000 to 2009. We find strong evidence of nonlinear effects in financial volatility. An out-of-sample analysis shows that modeling these effects can improve forecast performance.

A ser publicado em Journal of Business & Economic Statistics

Eric Hillebrand, Marcelo Medeiros.

Nonlinear Cointegration, Misspecification and Bimodality

N 577, 01/10/2010

We derive the asymptotic distribution of the ordinary least squares estimator in a regression

with cointegrated variables under misspecification and/or nonlinearity in the regressors. We show

that, under some circumstances, the order of convergence of the estimator changes and the asymptotic

distribution is non-standard. The t-statistic might also diverge. A simple case arises when the intercept

is erroneously omitted from the estimated model or in nonlinear-in-variables models with endogenous

regressors. In the latter case, a solution is to use an instrumental variable estimator. The core results in

this paper also generalise to more complicated nonlinear models involving integrated time series.


Publicado em Econometic Reviews, v. 33, n.7, p. 713-731, 2014


Marcelo Medeiros, Eduardo F. Mendes, L. Oxley.

A gerência recente do endividamento público brasileiro

N 595, 01/10/2010

Pblicado na Revista de Economia Política v. 32, n.2, p. 264-285, 2012

Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, Pedro Maia da Cunha.

Reassessing the Demography Hypothesis: the Great Brazilian Crime Shift

N 579, 01/09/2010

João Manoel Pinho de Mello.

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