It is a consensus in economic theory that the increase in the terms of trade leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. However, during the recent period of the COVID-19 pandemic, this relationship appears to have been disrupted, as there has been a significant rise in commodity prices but the real exchange rates of many countries have not appreciated correspondingly. The aim of this M.Sc. Thesis is to examine the reasons for this deviation from the established correlation. I estimate several SVARs for commodity exporting countries with a recursive block identification scheme and conclude that structural shocks other than the commodity one explained the real exchange rate depreciation in the pandemic period. In 2020, the global risk was the main factor responsible for depreciating the exchange rate, while in 2021 the high country risk, specially for emerging countries, and the low level of the domestic interest rate appear as the main factors responsible for this break.

This dissertation investigates the impact of environmental sanctions on forest changes in the Brazilian Amazon. We examine the role of general deterrence in changing farmers’ behavior by altering their perceived risk of violating forest laws after being punished or witnessing the punishment of adjacent farms. Using a difference-in-differences strategy and novel spatial data, we show that sanctions decrease deforestation by 48% in punished farms and 21% in adjacent farms while increasing reforestation by 15% and 6.5%, respectively. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that even sanctions lacking incapacitation components lead to substantial behavioral changes and that farmers’ responsiveness to sanctions coincides with the overall commitment to forest law enforcement. There is no evidence of spatial displacement or attempts to elude monitoring. In a counterfactual scenario without sanctions, farmers’ deforestation would increase by 29%. These findings suggest that general deterrence can make environmental sanctions a powerful tool for combating deforestation and promoting reforestation at scale.

This paper proposes a novel instrumental variable to estimate the causal impact of law enforcement on deforestation. DETER, a satellite-based system for mapping land cover, is the key tool in Amazon monitoring. It determines the location of recent forest clearings and is used to target enforcement. Because DETER cannot detect land cover patterns beneath clouds, it detects no clearings in covered areas. Results conrm that DETER cloud coverage is systematically correlated with nes, a proxy for the presence of law enforcers. The study explores this exogenous source of variation in the allocation of law enforcers as an instrument for the intensity of enforcement. Stricter law enforcement eectively deterred Amazon deforestation, helping avoid over 22,000 km2 of cleared forest area per sample year. Leakage of criminal activity into neighboring areas does not appear to have occurred. Results are submitted to a series of robustness checks.

This thesis consists of 3 chapters in development economics that relate natural disasters and environmental quality to political engagement and social capital. In the first chapter, we show that natural disasters can lead to punishment of incumbents. Interestingly, such punishment is the result of some heterogeneity in political participation. In local elections, turnout was lower in regions where the incumbent belonged to the party in power at the country level (DPJ), while turnout was higher in regions where the incumbent belonged to the main rival (LDP). As a result, the ruling party suffered a loss in these elections. The possible reason for this heterogeneity lies in the population’s disappointment with the DPJ. In addition, it shows a further heterogeneity in regards to the level of social capital. Whereas it is related to higher political participation, the associated higher community resilience possibly led to different voting behavior. The second chapter proposes a theoretical framework to link the empirical and theoretical literatures on the influence of environmental quality and risk on the emergence of cooperative behavior. Consistent with the empirical literature, it is shown that depending on the relationship between the environment and the club good and individuals’ beliefs about the cooperative behavior of others, the higher the probability of bad times, the greater the propensity of individuals to engage in collective action within a community. Finally, the third chapter examines the impact of natural disasters on the formation of social capital and its long-term persistence. Using data on ancient earthquakes in Japan, it is shown that people living in rural Japanese cities that were strongly hit in the past currently exhibit higher levels of trust and political engagement.

Race-neutral affirmative action in higher education has gained importance following the controversies over their race-based alternatives. In many settings, these interventions use a school-based criterion that selects beneficiaries relative to their peers. Exploiting a nationwide quota policy in Brazil that reserved a large share of vacancies in higher education for publicschool students, I show that the reform increases the private-to-public school transitions, especially among students of low-performing private schools. In addition to a direct decrease in returns of the private-school investment, spillovers on indirectly exposed cohorts and general equilibrium effects in the school system might also explain the results

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the post-war period. In our theory long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of inflation. The model, estimated using only inflation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term inflation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations.

In the absence of strong incentives, public service delivery crucially depends on bureaucrat selection. Despite wide adoption by governments, it is unclear whether civil service examinations reliably select for job performance. We investigate this question focusing on state judges in Brazil. Exploring monthly data on judicial output and cross-court movement, we estimate that judges account for at least 23% of the observed variation in number of cases disposed. With novel data on admission examinations, we show that judges with higher grades perform better than lower-ranked peers. Our results suggest competitive examinations can be an effective way to screen candidates.